Dan Kennedy reminds us that Gov. Patrick's defeat is far from a foregone conclusion.

For one thing, Patrick, despite his missteps, has managed to score some notable victories, including tough ethics reform, taxpayer-friendly changes to the public-employee pension system (although not enough), reorganisation of the state's wretched transportation bureaucracy and an education-reform law that emphasises standards and accountability.

Patrick's efforts to combat carbon emissions led a former California environmental official to say that Patrick "is trying to make California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger look like a carbon girlie man". Moreover, Patrick, a formidable campaigner, has maintained his nice-guy persona, with no hint of personal scandal. That matters in a state whose last three house speakers have run afoul of the authorities, and in which a state senator was caught by a surveillance camera stuffing cash down her bra.

Further, Kennedy notes:

The point is that whether Patrick loses his re-election bid, as expected, or manages an improbable comeback, it will have nothing to do with Barack Obama.

Despite their surface similarities, Patrick's and Obama's life experiences are dramatically different. Patrick grew up poor in a black section of Chicago. Obama's existence, by contrast, was rootless and marked by his struggle for a racial identity.

One important characteristic defines them both, however. Each was elected promising not just to enact a specific set of proposals but to change the very way business is conducted. Each has found it much harder than he'd expected to fulfill that promise.

If Deval Patrick loses this autumn, it will tell us little about what Massachusetts voters think about Obama. But if he wins, it may provide Obama with something of a road map he can study – and possibly follow to his own re-election victory in 2012.

Kennedy's piece is a must-read. If nothing else, it reminds those of us fundamentally opposed to Patrick's vision just how much work needs to be done.

UPDATE: Please be sure to join us Wednesday night at 8:00pm EST for the latest edition of The Notes on Blog Talk Radio! Our guests will be pollster Scott Rasmussen and author Marc Thiessen. Plus, more from Scot Lehigh, Howie Carr and the Boston Herald.

SECOND UPDATE: Gov. Patrick is willing to appear on conservative-leaning talk radio shows? I can think of one conservative-leaning talk radio show where he'll receive a warm welcome! Plus, more from Howie Carr, David Bernstein, Rasmussen Reports, the Herald and Globe.