Joan Vennochi on the 2010 gubernatorial race.

Deval Patrick, asterisk.

The Bay State’s first black governor, and the first Democrat to win the corner office in 16 years, is at risk of turning into a blip in Massachusetts political history - a one-term governor whose legacy becomes the zeal to replace him with a Republican.

In the early voting - money - Republican Charlie Baker is winning.

Baker raised $1.85 million over five months of campaigning, giving him three times more cash on hand than Patrick. That’s a fairly serious wake-up call for an incumbent Democrat who is best friends with a president.

Some of Baker’s money is coming from traditional Democratic donors, including previous Patrick supporters.

Baker’s big bucks mean one thing to Lawrence DiCara, a longtime Democrat. “He’s for real, which I knew anyway,’’ said DiCara, who remains a Patrick supporter.

Still, it’s only Round One. It’s a winning one for Baker, the former CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, but there’s a long way to go before a knock-out. One question, said Democrat Scott Harshbarger, a former attorney general and gubernatorial candidate, is whether this is “one-shot money’’ - contributions from people who know Baker, like him and owe him what Harshbarger labels “the chits of good will’’ - or something deeper and more dangerous for Patrick.

Baker was “able to translate his reputation and record into a significant fundraising event. If the next round demonstrates significant political strength . . . don’t kid yourself, this is going to be a major fight,’’ Harshbarger said.

Rob Gray, Baker’s chief strategist, predicts the money flow to the Republican’s campaign is “eminently sustainable.’’ He attributes the fundraising success to “a combination of people knowing Charlie as a government leader and a business leader and believing in his ability . . . plus a dissatisfaction with the way Deval Patrick has managed, or really not managed effectively, the state budget.’’

The landscape is tough for Democrats nationwide, from the president to members of Congress to governors. Voters are angry over fallout from the poor economy and unhappy over some policies, such as healthcare reform.

In Massachusetts, disappointment over Patrick’s tenure is translating into a real sense of political vulnerability. He was elected with expectations so high they would be difficult to meet under the best circumstances. A poor economy, plus Patrick’s own missteps, worsened the gap between promise and reality.

UPDATE: More from Howie Carr and the Herald.

SECOND UPDATE: More from the Globe, Herald and Metro.

THIRD UPDATE: More from Public Policy Polling.