Will Gov. Patrick inadvertently sabotage Barack Obama in the Massachusetts Democrat primary?
On February 5, more than 20 states will vote in the presidential-nomination process, with roughly half the total delegates at stake. That single day is shaping up as the big showdown between New York senator Hillary Clinton and Illinois senator Barack Obama, as both vie to be the Democratic Party’s standard-bearer in the 2008 election. And Massachusetts, which holds its primary on that Tuesday, is among the biggest prizes.Thanks to its heavy Democratic leanings, Massachusetts is the fifth-richest delegate prize on Super Tuesday for that party’s candidates, with a total of 121 — 93 of whom will be chosen by the voters that day. (The others are un-pledged “superdelegates.”)
And given Clinton’s home-field advantage in New York and New Jersey, and Obama’s in Illinois, Massachusetts can be viewed as second only to California among February 5 battleground states for the Democratic contenders...
Recently, as attested by the [2006] Patrick win, Massachusetts Democrats have certainly seemed eager to vote for the unknown challenger over the well-known establishment figure. And despite the polls, there is still plenty of time for a local Obama surge.
With New Hampshire in the rear-view mirror, local volunteers are now focusing on Massachusetts, say Obama staff and supporters. Organizational meetings are happening all over Massachusetts, and this past weekend those volunteers were making calls from 36 phone-bank locations across the state.
Things will really pick up after this Saturday, when the Democrats’ last pre–Super Tuesday primary takes place in South Carolina. After that, the power of the grassroots will be unleashed for the 11 days leading to February 5.
Don’t be surprised to see Obama announce at least one visit to the state in that stretch — and don’t underestimate the effect of an Obama in-person rally. You may recall the exuberant crowds on the Boston Common when Obama appeared here in support of Patrick, or the 5000 attendees at Obama’s fundraiser at the Agganis Arena this past April. A high-energy Obama swing through the state could easily change the poll numbers here overnight...
If the backing of the Democratic establishment in Massachusetts is not exactly golden, we don’t really know the strength of Patrick’s Midas touch, either.
“Deval Patrick’s got almost this mythic grassroots organization,” says one Clinton insider. “But we proved in New Hampshire that we can out-organize them.”
Certainly, Clinton’s win in New Hampshire gave observers reason to question the value of Patrick’s endorsement — and of the hundreds of Obama volunteers who streamed up from Massachusetts.
In fact, some, including WBZ’s Jon Keller, have suggested that Obama’s similarity to Patrick may have done him more harm than good among New Hampshirites, who are well aware of the lack of quick progress that the Massachusetts governor has made.
This could be even more of a problem in Massachusetts. Frankly, a lot of Massachusetts Democrats now wonder whether they were snookered into believing that an unknown and inexperienced candidate, however inspirational his rhetoric, could really change the entrenched Beacon Hill bureaucracy, let alone Capitol Hill’s.
UPDATE: More from the Globe, Herald and Hub Politics.